Towns with a mild winter and a low earthquake probability
"No snow to shovel, and a low earthquake probability" is a combination Japan rarely offers. Mild winters are found in the south of the Pacific side and in the southwestern islands, and the south of the Pacific side is exactly where the Nankai Trough scenario applies. This page filters all 1,892 municipalities to those with an average January temperature of 8.0 ℃ or above and a 30-year probability of Shindo 6-lower shaking of 15.0% or below.
Only 17 remain: Okinawa (7), Kagoshima (6), Tokyo (4). 7 are in Okinawa and 10 elsewhere, and most of those elsewhere are islands of Kagoshima, the southern tip of the Satsuma peninsula, or the Izu and Ogasawara islands of Tokyo. Essentially no mainland lowland survives. The mildest is Okinawa / 多良間村 (18.4 ℃), and the lowest earthquake probability is Okinawa / 南大東村 (0.2%).
| Municipality | Prefecture | Jan temp | Quake | Flood | Land price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 南大東村 | Okinawa | 17.7 ℃ | 0.2% | 0.0% | — |
| 北大東村 | Okinawa | 18.1 ℃ | 0.2% | 0.0% | — |
| 青ヶ島村 | Tokyo | 10.8 ℃ | 1.3% | 0.0% | — |
| 宇検村 | Kagoshima | 14.3 ℃ | 2.0% | 0.0% | — |
| 御蔵島村 | Tokyo | 9.2 ℃ | 3.9% | 0.0% | — |
| 枕崎市 | Kagoshima | 8.9 ℃ | 4.3% | 2.1% | 15,700 JPY/m² |
| 垂水市 | Kagoshima | 8.1 ℃ | 10.5% | 1.7% | 12,225 JPY/m² |
| 八丈町 | Tokyo | 10.8 ℃ | 10.6% | 0.0% | 8,900 JPY/m² |
| 大宜味村 | Okinawa | 15.5 ℃ | 11.4% | 0.4% | — |
| 指宿市 | Kagoshima | 8.5 ℃ | 12.0% | 0.0% | 9,430 JPY/m² |
| 粟国村 | Okinawa | 16.7 ℃ | 12.0% | 0.0% | — |
| 南さつま市 | Kagoshima | 8.1 ℃ | 12.1% | 5.1% | 7,280 JPY/m² |
| 本部町 | Okinawa | 15.9 ℃ | 12.7% | 0.7% | 16,700 JPY/m² |
| 多良間村 | Okinawa | 18.4 ℃ | 13.9% | 0.0% | — |
| 利島村 | Tokyo | 8.1 ℃ | 14.4% | 0.0% | — |
| 伊平屋村 | Okinawa | 16.1 ℃ | 14.9% | 0.0% | — |
| 天城町 | Kagoshima | 15.3 ℃ | 15.0% | 0.0% | 9,800 JPY/m² |
How to read this table
The average January temperature comes from the climate normals mesh of the National Land Numerical Information dataset, originally the JMA mesh normals, read at the single third-order mesh cell that contains the town hall. In a large municipality it describes the area around the town hall; settlements up in the mountains run several degrees colder.
The 8.0 ℃ line marks roughly the point where frozen pipes and icy roads stop being a routine concern. Above it, heating costs and snow clearing differ visibly from inland Honshu.
These places score low on earthquakes because they lie far from the Nankai and Sagami trough scenarios. Islands can be far enough from both trenches and active faults to land at a few per cent. The range inside the table is still wide, so read the probability column against the temperature column.
What the numbers do not tell you
Islands take the full force of typhoons. A low earthquake probability does not offset wind, storm surge and salt damage, which change how houses are built and what they cost to maintain.
On islands and at the southern tip of a peninsula, medical care, shopping and transport are limited. Check the hospital and clinic counts, the number of convenience stores and the population projection on each municipality page.
Temperatures are climate normals, not the weather of a given year. Normals are revised roughly every decade, so they can lag the recent climate.
Open the map with these conditions