Low-hazard, low-price towns within 150 km of Tokyo
"Close enough to Tokyo, low hazard, cheap land" is a question no single metric answers. This page takes every municipality within 150 km of Tokyo Station in a straight line, keeps only those with an expected flood area of 5.0% or less and a 30-year probability of Shindo 6-lower shaking of 30.0% or less, and orders what remains by the median residential land price.
413 municipalities lie within 150 km, and 11 of them meet all three conditions. They sit in 5 prefectures (Gunma, Tochigi, Yamanashi, Saitama, Shizuoka). The cheapest is Gunma / みなかみ町 (18,050 JPY/m²) and the most expensive one still in the table is Saitama / 飯能市 (88,450 JPY/m²). The lowlands of the Kanto plain drop out on the flood condition and the south of Kanto drops out on the earthquake condition, which leaves the inland north and the edge of the mountains.
| Municipality | Prefecture | Land price | Flood | Quake | Near Tokyo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| みなかみ町 | Gunma | 18,050 JPY/m² | 1.3% | 0.4% | 130.6 km |
| 那須塩原市 | Tochigi | 20,500 JPY/m² | 4.1% | 8.2% | 144.6 km |
| 日光市 | Tochigi | 21,050 JPY/m² | 1.5% | 10.0% | 115.7 km |
| 渋川市 | Gunma | 24,000 JPY/m² | 3.9% | 2.4% | 113.2 km |
| みどり市 | Gunma | 24,550 JPY/m² | 1.6% | 5.3% | 90.6 km |
| 甲州市 | Yamanashi | 29,100 JPY/m² | 1.1% | 18.8% | 93.8 km |
| 鳩山町 | Saitama | 32,300 JPY/m² | 4.6% | 7.8% | 51.4 km |
| 日高市 | Saitama | 52,550 JPY/m² | 2.7% | 19.4% | 46.1 km |
| 秩父市 | Saitama | 56,150 JPY/m² | 0.4% | 6.8% | 70.5 km |
| 伊東市 | Shizuoka | 59,000 JPY/m² | 2.0% | 26.1% | 99.9 km |
| 飯能市 | Saitama | 88,450 JPY/m² | 0.7% | 17.7% | 44.1 km |
How to read this table
The flood threshold of 5.0% means that the area expected to flood in a worst-case rainfall covers no more than 5.0% of the municipality. The area comes from the Hazard Map Portal tiles, clipped to the municipal boundary. A town can score badly because of wide farmland along a river, and a low ratio does not help if the house you buy sits inside the expected inundation area.
The earthquake threshold of 30.0% is the probability of shaking of Shindo 6-lower or above within 30 years, taken from the J-SHIS probabilistic seismic hazard map published by NIED. It is read at a single representative point, the town hall, so the ground under a particular plot can behave differently.
Land price is the median of the residential standard sites of the official land price survey (MLIT), aggregated per municipality. Municipalities with fewer than 4 samples are left out, because a single plot then moves the median. Their absence says nothing about how cheap or expensive they are.
Distance is measured in a straight line between Tokyo Station and the town hall. It is not travel time: at the same distance, a town on a shinkansen line and a town served only by a local line are hours apart in practice.
What the numbers do not tell you
All three conditions are rough figures for the municipality as a whole, not for the plot you would live on. Once you have a shortlist, check each address on the Hazard Map Portal's overlay map.
This table ignores landslide alert areas, tsunami inundation and snow depth. In mountain towns landslides matter, and on the Sea of Japan side snow shapes daily life. Add those conditions on the map to test a candidate.
A low land price is also a sign of low demand. Read it together with the population projection and the number of medical facilities: the municipality pages list every metric with its nationwide rank and its source.
Open the map with these conditions